PMI Winter 2009 Risk Index Indicates Broader Risk of Home Price ... - PR Newswire (press release)

14.01.09

, PMI's Chief Economist and Strategist. "These factors will put additional upward pressure on risk, with increases in affordability and lower mortgage rates providing some offset."

PMI's U.S. Market Risk Index(SM) ranks the nation's 381 largest MSAs according to the likelihood that home prices will be lower in two years. Risk scores translate directly into an estimated percentage risk that home prices will be lower in two years. The Risk Index uses economic, housing, and mortgage market factors (including home price appreciation, employment, affordability, excess housing supply, interest rates, and foreclosure activity) to determine these probabilities. Among the nation's 50 largest MSAs, 23 had a risk score exceeding 50, indicating a greater than 50 percent chance of prices being lower in those markets in 2 years.

In an effort to enhance forecasting accuracy, the Winter 2009 Risk Index incorporates a new home price index. PMI now bases its estimates on the more precise MSA-level Repeat Transaction Home Price Index from Loan Performance (a division of First American CoreLogic, Inc.). Previously the company based its estimates on Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA, formerly the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, OFHEO) data. This change better reflects the breadth of mortgage market transactions and eliminates any bias on home prices resulting from the inclusion of refinancing activity. PMI also moved from utilizing state-based measures of mortgage foreclosure activity to MSA-based data to better reflect the impact on house prices from foreclosures at the local level. A complete copy of the Winter 2009 PMI Economic and Real Estate Trends(SM) (ERET) report and Appendix that provides data for all 381 U.S. MSAs is available at: http://www.pmi-us.com/eret .

Source: PR Newswire (press release), NY

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